What are the expectations for each truck market segment in 2024?

Author: Hou

Mar. 09, 2024

1. What is the expected sales volume of the industry and the company in 2024?

 

Answer: In 2024, the country's policies to boost the economy will continue to be released, and the overall economy will continue to recover steadily. The company predicts that total commercial vehicle sales will exceed 4.4 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of more than 10%. Foton Motor's overall sales target is to ensure 700,000 units and strive for 750,000 units (the final sales target is subject to the annual board of directors review results). The company's growth this year mainly comes from new energy, southern markets and export business.

 

2. What is the expected export situation of the industry and the company in 2024?

 

Answer: In 2024, benefiting from the overall rise in the reputation of "Made in China" and the existing market foundation, it is expected that the export of Chinese commercial vehicles will maintain growth momentum, with an increase of approximately 10%, which is a decrease from 2023. The company aims to export 150,000 vehicles overseas, a year-on-year increase of approximately 15%. Among them, the focus is on the sales of heavy trucks, pickup trucks, and new energy products. Foton's heavy-duty truck growth mainly comes from markets such as Eastern Europe, Africa and the Americas. Through product variety expansion, new platform launch, basic market in-depth development and new market channel development, the pickup truck business has doubled its sales volume to exceed 20,000 units. The new energy business strives to exceed the goal of 10,000 vehicles. It will successively launch products such as light trucks and pure electric platform small VANs that meet EU standards in the European Union, Asia-Pacific, and American markets. It will also launch hybrid products in key markets.

 

3. What does the company think of the heavy truck industry in 2024? Can the penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks continue to increase?

 

Answer: In 2024, the internal and external situation is generally improving. Factors such as the dual-carbon strategy + right-of-way policy drive will drive the steady recovery of market demand for medium and heavy trucks. Overall, the heavy truck market demand in 2024 is expected to be around 1.05-1.1 million, a year-on-year increase of approximately 15%. In 2024, the supply and demand of natural gas will become balanced and loose, the infrastructure will be improved, the supply capacity will be guaranteed, and the filling convenience will be improved. Taken together, the supply situation will be further relaxed in 2024, and the price difference between oil and gas will still be the main factor driving the increase in the number of gas vehicles. The advantages of gas vehicles will still exist, and the penetration rate is expected to continue to increase.

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4. What is the future development trend of the light passenger market and the companys expected sales volume of light passenger vehicles in 2024?

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Answer: The growth rate of the domestic light passenger industry is expected to be around 10% in 2024. The main increase will come from the growth of urban logistics brought about by the increase in urbanization rate, the growth of professional fields brought about by the refinement of urban division of labor, and the travel and leisure life of residents. The growth of the travel and camping market brought about by this method.

 

Foton's light bus business aims to achieve a global goal of 100,000 vehicles in 2024, a year-on-year increase of more than 80%. Among them, we strive to achieve more than 80,000 units in China. Focusing on this extremely challenging goal, the company has made key deployments in terms of products, new energy, and business models: first, to expand the target market and launch new products such as Damai and DaV; second, to continue Focus on new energy and fully cover the 6-12 cubic meter urban logistics market, 7-14-seat passenger market, etc.

 

5. What is the expected sales volume of the light card market in 2024?

 

Answer: With the recovery of consumption, the light truck market is also affected by the new blue plate regulations and new energy policies. The market is developing towards compliance and new energy. The overall demand for light trucks has gradually stabilized, and market demand has gradually returned to the origin of the product. Products are gradually becoming more high-end and customized for scenarios, entering the stage of innovation and intensive cultivation. The overall light truck market is expected to grow by 5-6% in 2024, with sales of approximately 2 million units. The main growth factors are: the accelerated elimination of National IV models, the continued increase in the volume of economical light trucks, new energy vehicles, and growth brought about by overseas markets.

 

6. What is the market prospect of the company's AMT light trucks and hybrid light trucks in 2024?

 

Answer: The application of hybrid and AMT in the light truck market brings superior economy and driving experience to customers, and effectively improves customers' operating income. After 23 years of product launch, Foton's light-duty AMT has been widely recognized by customers. As product resources will be further enriched in 2024, Foton's AMT products will continue to lead the market and customer upgrades. The long-range and heavy-duty product attributes of hybrid light trucks meet the right-of-way needs and long-mileage transportation requirements of specific markets. Foton's hybrid power layout is early and its technical routes are diversified. With the further enrichment of products and improvement of channel capabilities, it is expected to continue to grow in 2024.


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